A derivative indicator analyzing Bitcoin's moving averages, which previously signaled the conclusion of the 2022 bear market, has been triggered again as the BTC price approaches the $65,000 level, putting it back into its reversal zone.

The Bitcoin quantitative account known as Frank, which is named after the famous economist Frank A. Fetter, strongly affirmed this conviction in its most recent analysis posted on X, asserting that the most severe phase of the recent BTC price downturn is likely concluded.

One post from the account declared, “This is a textbook bitcoin bottom; I mean every bottom signal has flashed or is flashing, it’ll be very obvious in hindsight.”

An accompanying visual aid in the analysis displayed the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) for BTC/USD, incorporating several defined quantiles. Specifically, the ninth quantile warrants close attention; this level previously marked reversals during both the lowest point of the 2022 bear market and the severe crash witnessed in March 2020 due to COVID-19. Currently, the Bitcoin price has returned to this identified reversal band.

Shifting focus to short-term holders (STHs)—defined as wallets that have held BTC for a maximum of six months without selling—another positive signal has emerged.

Frank noted the conspicuous positive readings generated by the cohort’s spent output profit ratio (SOPR), a metric that gauges the proportion of coins moved on-chain by STHs that realize a profit or loss.

The account communicated this finding by stating, “A key bitcoin metric might be signaling that a market shift is underway. Sth-sopr just flipped green as short-term holders are realizing profits.”

These observations contribute to a growing sentiment among market participants that the 2026 bear market phase is nearing its end.

As previously reported by Cointelegraph, various onchain metrics, alongside related price benchmarks, are registering levels reminiscent of those seen in 2022.

Conversely, the onchain analytics service CryptoQuant has advocated for a more reserved interpretation of the STH-SOPR data, cautioning that the metric might require reaching even lower levels before a confirmed bottom is established.

In a blog post published Wednesday, contributor Trader Germini commented that, “In stronger bottoming zones, STH SOPR often drops much deeper as short-term holders capitulate and sell at large losses. However, the current level is not near the deeper capitulation area seen around 0.93 in previous local bottom zones.”